Polls in all 7 swing states in the United States have Trump leading! Four economic charts provide clues

Former U.S. President Trump and current President Biden will face off in the U.S. election in November this year. The latest polls show Trump currently leading Biden in five battleground states. Barron’s analyzed Biden’s troubles in swing states based on several economic data performances.

Former U.S. President Trump and current President Biden will face off in the U.S. election in November this year.
The latest polls show Trump currently leading Biden in five battleground states.
Barron’s analyzed Biden’s troubles in swing states based on the performance of several economic data.
The results of the 2020 U.S. election are mainly determined by these seven swing states, and recent polling performance clearly reflects the dissatisfaction of voters.
The picture above shows the winning-loss gap in the 2020 U.S. election in 7 swing states in the United States and the polling average in 2024 (Picture: Barron\’s). Poor polling results reflect some indicators of the problems caused by rising interest rates and increasing inflation. It shows that the economic conditions of the seven swing states that may determine the outcome of the 2024 US election are not that strong, including Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. This is very important to Biden. It is a big trouble and also brings opportunities for Trump.
Although no state is truly in trouble, most of the seven states mentioned above still lag behind the national average in terms of overall economic growth. Indicators including inflation-adjusted wage growth and consumer confidence also lag behind the national average.
Economic growth in most swing states has lagged behind the national average. Economic growth in most swing states has lagged behind the national average since Biden took office (Photo: Barron\’s) Inflation-adjusted U.S. gross domestic product since Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021 The GDP growth rate exceeds 8%, with the growth rates in Nevada and Arizona both exceeding 10%, higher than the national average.
North Carolina and Georgia are slightly behind the national states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Among the poorer performers, Wisconsin is the worst off, with an economic growth rate of only 3.1%.
Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said one negative for Biden is that many manufacturers seeking wage flexibility are building factories in states with right-to-work laws, which benefits southern states where taxes are lower and land is cheaper. There are also fewer building restrictions, which is more detrimental to union-friendly states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Other negative factors include population migration and aging.
For example, since April 2020, the population of Michigan has decreased by 0.4%, Pennsylvania has decreased by 0.3%, and Wisconsin has increased by 0.3%.
Wisconsin is one of the states most reliant on manufacturing in the United States. Although it also has a right-to-work law, Wisconsin’s manufacturing workforce has been shrinking for most of last year. This is partly related to the failure of several major projects to deliver on their initial promises, including Trump’s 2017 The Hon Hai factory claimed to cost US$10 billion in 2016.
Still, demographic advantages have been a driver of growth in Nevada and Arizona.
The two states’ populations have grown by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, since April 2020, above the national average of 1%.
Employment performance provides tailwind for Biden Most swing states saw unemployment rates below the national average in March (Graphic: Barron\’s) One positive for Biden is that both national and state-level unemployment rates are near historic lows.
Although the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% in April, it still hovered at multi-decade lows.
By comparison, Barack Obama won reelection when the unemployment rate was as high as 7.7%, and George Bush won when the unemployment rate was 5.4%.
Barron\’s pointed out that no swing state\’s unemployment rate is higher than when Obama or Bush were in office.
Although state-by-state data for April are not yet available, five of the seven battleground states had unemployment rates at or below the national average in March.
Michigan\’s unemployment rate was slightly higher at 3.9%.
The exception is Nevada, which had the third-highest unemployment rate in the country at 5.1% in March.
Nevada\’s economy relies mainly on tourism and construction and is one of the states hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic, with the unemployment rate still not back to the pre-pandemic level of 3.6%.
However, Nevada\’s economy is still growing rapidly. From the third quarter to the fourth quarter of last year, the annual GDP growth rate was 6.7%, making it the fastest growing state in the United States.
Inflation is declining, but wages cannot keep up with inflation. Except for Wisconsin and North Carolina, the wage growth rate of the other five swing states lags behind the national average (Figure: Barron\’s). Whether it is political or economic inflation and the loss of purchasing power may This is Biden\’s biggest weakness.
Moody’s data showed March inflation rates in both Georgia and North Carolina were slightly above the national average, while other battleground states had inflation rates below average.
Although U.S. inflation has eased, wage growth has still failed to keep up with price increases.
The average national wage increase of 15.9% since Biden took office has lagged behind the 19.4% price increase.
Most swing states fared even worse. Only North Carolina and Wisconsin had above-average wage growth, while five other swing states had below-average wage growth.
The situation in Georgia has both good and bad aspects.
The Georgia economy appears to be booming as a new electric vehicle hub.
Hyundai is investing $12.6 billion in the state, including building a $7.6 billion factory to build electric vehicles.
An overall boom in manufacturing has pushed Georgia\’s unemployment rate down to 3.1 percent.
However, Barron\’s calculated based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor and found that Georgia\’s average hourly wage increased by only 10.4% from 2021 to March this year, lagging behind the national average hourly wage growth.
Consumer confidence is low. With the exception of Georgia, consumer confidence in swing states lags behind the national average (Photo: Barron\’s). When voters cast their ballots, the most important thing is how they feel, that is, whether they have confidence in their financial situation and economic prospects. confidence.
The U.S. consumer confidence index compiled by Morning Consult was at 93 in April, which is an improvement over past years but still well below the pre-pandemic level of 114 in February 2020.
Consumers in most battleground states appear to lack confidence, with only Georgia showing above-average confidence.
John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult, pointed to a key factor: Many voters are pessimistic about whether their wages and purchasing power will keep up with inflation.
Still, it might be an overstatement to say these battleground states are in trouble as a result.
For example, although Wisconsin\’s economic growth rate is relatively low, its wage growth and unemployment rate are both higher than the national average. Other swing states have similar highlights.

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