Mainland stock volume shrunk, real estate stocks bucked the trend and rose due to two major bullish news in the market.

China\’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed down more than 0.8% today (15th). While volume continued to shrink, real estate stocks bucked the trend and rose. Everbright Jiabao (600622-CN) and Tiandiyuan (600665-CN) , Yunnan Urban Investment (600239-CN) and other daily limits closed. I Love My Home, China Merchants Shekou, CCCC Real Estate, Binjiang Group, Poly Development, Special Development Services, Tianbao Infrastructure, Nanguo Real Estate, Daming City, etc. also rose by more than 5%. , mainly because of two major bullish news. One is that the relevant authorities are considering allowing local governments across the country to purchase unsold housing stock, and the other is that if the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts interest rates as scheduled, China may also cut interest rates next month.

China\’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed down more than 0.8% today (15th). While volume continued to shrink, real estate stocks bucked the trend and rose. Everbright Jiabao (600622-CN), Tiandiyuan (600665-CN), Yunnan City Investment (600239-CN) waited for the daily limit to close. I love my home, China Merchants Shekou, CCCC Real Estate, Binjiang Group, Poly Development, Special Development Services, Tianbao Infrastructure, Nanguo Real Estate, Daming City, etc. also rose by more than 5%, mainly due to rumors Two major pieces of bullish news are that the relevant authorities are considering allowing local governments across the country to purchase unsold housing stock. The other is that if the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts interest rates as scheduled, China may also cut interest rates next month.
\”Brokerage China\” reported that since the high-level meeting on April 30 proposed a coordinated study to digest existing real estate, the market has been looking forward to the government\’s acquisition of existing real estate to alleviate market pressure. In March, it was also reported that relevant departments were planning similar actions. .
However, there has been no official confirmation of the matter so far.
In addition, some market expectations for interest rate cuts have begun to ferment.
In order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the People\’s Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the People\’s Bank of China) today launched a 2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase and a 125 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation. The winning interest rates were the same as before at 1.8% and 2.5% respectively.
Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank, said the prospect of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts still needs to be postponed.
At the same time, peripheral analysts believe that if the ECB cuts interest rates as scheduled, the People\’s Bank of China may lower interest rates in June because an interest rate cut after the ECB may reduce the impact on the RMB exchange rate. In addition, China has sufficient reasons to cut interest rates such as stimulating consumption, loan demand and government bond issuance. It is also conducive to the recovery of the housing market.
As for the feasibility of the government\’s acquisition of housing stock, Tianfeng Securities believes that theoretically it can reduce the inventory level to ease the downward pressure on the housing market and achieve part of the goals of the three major projects by changing the use of housing to affordable housing. However, in order to play a role in supporting the market, The housing sales cycle must be reduced to less than 18 months. To reduce it to less than 18 months, about 7.4 months of inventory must be sold, which means that the sales area of ​​770 million square meters accounts for about 29% of the general housing inventory.
According to China\’s seventh census data, China\’s housing stock area at the end of 2020 was approximately 29.5 billion square meters. In 2021 and 2022, there were 860 million square meters and 1.00 billion square meters of commercial residential housing completed respectively. By the end of 2022, the stock housing area was approximately 31.3 billion square meters. According to previous data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, China’s housing vacancy rate is approximately 15%.
According to Tianfeng Securities, it is estimated that the area of ​​vacant historic houses will be approximately 4.7 billion square meters by the end of 2022. Considering that new demand in recent years is also digesting the vacant housing stock, the area of ​​vacant historic houses in March this year was approximately 4.4 billion square meters, even without considering the land to be developed by developers. The general inventory of new houses alone, that is, the houses that builders have started to build for sale and the vacant second-hand houses that can become effective supply, currently also has a general housing inventory of 2.63 billion square meters.
In addition, there are some positive signals from the real estate market. According to Guolian Securities data, from last year to the first quarter of this year, the return on net assets of builders bottomed out and stabilized. The resilience of central state-owned enterprises showed that the decline in return on net assets in 2023 narrowed to -1.17%. Updated in the first quarter of this year. Become a regular employee.
The asset structure has also continued to improve. Last year, the asset-liability ratio dropped to 75.98%. Central state-owned enterprises led the way in stabilizing leverage, and it further dropped to 75.69% in the first quarter of this year.
In terms of net debt ratio, last year\’s increase was 2.69%, which was 5.45% lower than the increase in 2022. The net debt ratio of central state-owned enterprises dropped slightly.

Like (0)
Previous May 15, 2024 9:49 am
Next May 15, 2024 9:49 am

Related posts