Ten reasons for the housing market to reverse, five key future trends, and eight analyzes

arts. Li Tongrong

arts. Li Tongrong In recent months, the stock market has exceeded 20,000 points. Construction stocks have hit new highs in price and volume on the back of high profit growth. The overall real estate market is also blooming in the north, middle and south.
However, seeing the rising housing prices, the house-buying public has no choice but to reluctantly follow up no matter how much they complain.
After two years of divergence in price and volume in 2022 and 2023, the real estate market will flip again to an increase in both price and volume in the first half of 2024. The author interprets this phenomenon as the tail-flip phenomenon before the boom reverses. Only the tail-flip and overshoot will end the end-of-the-year uptrend period. The rising trend will end the fifth cycle of bullish market.
The author puts forward ten reasons why the housing market is tailing off based on the fundamentals of the housing market, the current financial situation, changes in the price-volume relationship between supply and demand and technical aspects, and the impact of long and short factors on policy news: 1. New Qing\’an shows its power: 2023Q3 New Qing\’an Loan The project ignited the rigid demand market in the cooling housing market, and the mortgage balance hit record highs and exceeded 10 trillion, which is amazingly powerful.
2. The stock market fuels the fire: In 2024Q1~Q2, the stock market exceeded 20,000 points, showing that the economic prospects are promising, which indirectly fuels the housing market.
3. Optimistic economic growth: The GDP growth forecast for the first half of this year is optimistic. The Controller\’s Office has revised the GDP for the first quarter to 6.51%, which has greatly enhanced the confidence in home buying.
4. The increase in oil prices and electricity prices has greatly increased the expected inflation and the mentality of preserving value.
5. Flooding of hot money: The stock market is booming and hot money has flowed out significantly, with strong momentum and strong indirect flow into the real estate market.
6. Pre-sale push-up: The pre-sale market uses the concept of futures to attract investment buyers who operate leverage and take advantage of the trend to raise the unit price.
7. The wave of housing handovers drives up the average price of existing homes: A large wave of housing handovers in the existing housing market pushes up transaction volume data and average unit prices, causing a phenomenon of overweight.
8. The policy on housing sales is temporarily idle: During the transition period between the old and new governments, there is no intention to sell houses for the time being. The market is on the rise without any policy interference.
9. Influence of geopolitical relations: Cross-strait geopolitical relations have temporarily stopped breathing, waiting for the new government to announce the suspension of trade barrier list sanctions.
10. Policies distort the market: The policies to suppress housing in the main upgrading period suppress rigid demand and distort the market. However, the housing market in the last upgrading period has already cooled down, but the government deliberately launched the new Qing\’an project policy before the election, triggering the wait-and-see potential rigid demand and triggering a flicker effect. .
Based on the above ten reasons for the upward trend, the author believes that the effect of most of the factors driving up the price will diminish and boldly predicts that the housing market will weaken in the fourth quarter of 2024Q4. The five key factors that specifically affect the weakening of the housing market are as follows: (1) Housing prices have entered super Rising period: The total price of the rigid demand market has been squeezed to the ceiling, and the square footage has been pushed to the floor. The push will be weak.
(2) Potential rigid demand is overbought and overbought: The effect of the New Qing’an loan project is diminishing, and the potential rigid demand market is overbought, which is detrimental to the market outlook.
(3) Technical indicators are bearish at the high end: The overheating of the high-end market at the end of the housing price rise period may reverse at any time.
The synchronization of construction start volume, construction and lighting volume and the death cross reversal leading signal of lighting volume have appeared.
(4) Unfriendly policies: House hoarding tax 2.0 is officially on the way. House crackdown policies may emerge under the pressure of the new Congress.
(5) Geographical relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may be tense: The impending cross-Strait trade war will be detrimental to economic growth in the high base period.
Regarding the development of the real estate market in 2024, the author proposes an analysis of eight major trends as follows: 1. Price and volume surge in the first half of the year: the real estate market has shown a tail-flip phenomenon that will continue into the third quarter.
2. Q4 in the second half of the year turned from bullish to bearish: Technically bearish, housing prices \”precede declines with market prices\”, product and regional performance were \”clearly strong and weak\”.
3. The annual transaction volume is active: the annual number of transferred buildings has turned from weak to strong and may exceed 330,000.
4. Anti-fall areas: \”High-tech Entry Zone\” and \”High-speed Railway Special Economic Zone\” are property purchase areas that can be advanced, retreated and defended.
5. Anti-fall products: \”Low total price, small square footage, low house age\” are the main supporting force during market consolidation.
6. Areas and products with loose prices: Technology parks spill over to overpriced eggshell areas and products with \”high total price, large square footage, and high age of housing\”.
7. City performance: Greater Taipei is slightly weaker in the over-rising areas in the central and southern parts of Taipei, while Taoyuan is the strongest.
8. The performance of the next wave of cycles: In the era of the great housing replacement boom, mid-sized products with a large area will turn around and see \”track\”, and the central and southern areas will continue to strengthen.
Attached picture: 11101-11303 Statistical table of residential loan balances Source: \”Financial Management Weekly\” Issue 1239 For more exciting content, please go to \”Financial Management Weekly\”

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